by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2025 08:11:00 AM
Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.
However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).
A few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here
Then I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:
For the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.
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I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn’t even on recession watch!
And I updated that post several times.
Bill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.
“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.
And in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller A comment on Professor Shiller’s “The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?”. My conclusion:
No big deal, and definitely not a “gigantic” boom in house prices.
In 2021, I wrote: Is there a New Housing Bubble?
The lack of wild speculation doesn’t mean house prices can’t decline, but it means that we won’t see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.
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From a historical perspective, house prices are high. But lending standards have been solid, and we haven’t seen significant speculation – so I wouldn’t call this a bubble.
Also in 2021, I started my real estate newsletter.
Note: for $25 you can read the entire archive and one month of daily posts – but make sure you cancel or substack will bill you every month! For $100, you will usually receive 4 to 6 articles per week for a year, you can read the archive and comment on all the posts.
A few key articles:
Stay tuned!
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