by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 01:41:00 PM
Last month, I noted:
State and local government education hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted). On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, 542.4 thousand education jobs lost. This happens every June. However, this year fewer jobs were lost than expected resulting in the large SA gain. It is possible this is just a timing issue and more than expected educators will be let go in July.
BofA economists noted this morning: July jobs report: beware the unexpected
Government employment (federal, state and local) surged by 73k in June, compared to an average of 13k over the first five months of the year. The spike in June was driven by what appears to be a seasonal distortion in state & local education employment, which should get paid back in July. We assume a 25k decline in total government payrolls with risks to the upside if the payback instead happens when schools reopen.
Looking back at previous years, it is possible we will see a seasonally adjusted decline in state and local education of 50 thousand or more for July (payback for June). This will be something to watch out for!
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