by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 11:40:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in September.
There were several key stories for September:
• Sales NSA are down 0.2% YoY through September, and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995!
• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for almost 3 years.
• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for the month of September since 2015).
• The median price is up 2.1% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines – and we might see national price declines later this year or in 2026.
Sales at 4.06 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were at the consensus estimate.
Sales averaged close to 5.32 million SAAR for the month of September in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
…In September, sales in these markets were up 7.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were up 8.2% year-over-year in September (close).
Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was lower than the NSA data suggested (there are other seasonal factors).
…
More local data coming in November for activity in October!
In September, sales in these markets were up 7.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were up 8.2% year-over-year in September (close).There is much more in the article.
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