Calculated Risk: CPI Preview

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in July).

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.36% increase in core CPI prices in August (vs. 0.3% consensus) and a 3.13% increase year-over-year.
…
We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.6%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.29% increase in core PCE prices in August.

From BofA:

We forecast headline and core CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in July owing to rising energy
prices, steady tariff-driven goods inflation, and firm non-housing services. Given our
m/m forecasts, we expect y/y headline CPI should rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, its highest
since last July, and Core CPI y/y should remain at 3.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled area is the change for last August.   CPI was up 0.18% in August 2024, and core CPI was up 0.28%.  So, anything above those readings for August will push up year-over-year inflation.