by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 10:00:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler
A brief excerpt:
After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in July.
There were several key stories for July:
• Sales NSA are down YoY through July, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!
• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.
• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for July since 2016).
• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines – and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026)
Sales at 4.01 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.
Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of July in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
…In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.
Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data.
…
More local data coming in September for activity in August!
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.There is much more in the article.
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